INDIAN SECURITY ENVIRONMENT

1.   India’s security environment encompasses a complex matrix of regional and global issues and challenges. India’s strategic location and its growing global interactions require engagement on a range of issues that impact on national security with a view to securing vital national interests. The need to enhance preparedness to address consequences of instability and volatility in parts of the immediate and extended neighbourhood remains a key priority. At the same time, there are renewed and successful efforts to build stronger defence partnerships with a wide range of friendly foreign countries to enhance international peace and stability.

2.     The security situation in India’s immediate South Asian neighbourhood presents a mixed picture. While there was an improvement in the security and political situation in some countries, political developments caused a worsening of the internal security situation in others. Terrorism, insurgency and sectarian conflict increasingly threaten the stability of the region. Amidst ongoing efforts to impart fresh dynamism to strengthening relations with neighbours in a comprehensive manner, cooperative security approaches are of immediate relevance to the region. India is committed to build security co-operation with all partners in the neighbourhood on the basis of equality, mutual benefit and mutual respect.

Army chief Rawat 

3.  The Indian Ocean Region (IOR) is central to India’s growth and security. By virtue of its geo-physical configuration as well as its strategic and economic imperatives, India looks to the seas and Oceans surrounding it. India’s peninsular projection into the Indian Ocean Region, astride the vital sea-lanes of the world stretching from the Suez Canal and the Persian Gulf to the Malacca Straits, also links India’s ability to engage freely in maritime trade and commerce.

 Ajit Doval

4.  India is also impacted by developments beyond its immediate neighbourhood and the Indian Ocean region. Developments in West Asia, Central Asia and the Asia Pacific have a direct bearing on India’s interests. In all these regions, we are witnessing major political and economic shifts with strategic implications. While many of these transitions are marked by growing volatility and violence, at the same time, inter-linkages of globalisation and deepening economic interdependence are also increasingly evident. Consequent re-calibrations and dynamics in the global balance of power, that are also driven by the rise of emerging economies and multipolarity, have created further uncertainties in the strategic outlook. These factors are increasingly being manifested in competition and contestation between states.

5.   The continuing economic slowdown in the West, Japan and China, combined with the rapid and sustained fall in energy prices directly affecting major oil producing countries such as Russia, have depressed the global economic outlook. The economies of other regions are also being adversely affected, as manifested through currency fluctuations, decline in exports and lower direct investment flows.

6.    Though the possibility of a fullscale conventional war between states has comparatively receded as compared to the 20th Century, the rise of new threats and drivers of conflict, including proxy wars as part of continuing efforts by some states to destabilise other states, have created a regional and global security landscape that in some ways is even more challenging. Rising nationalism, increasing military spending, spiralling migration and refugee flows due to man-made and natural crises, easy availability of weapons and intense competition for natural resources provide added volatility to existing fault lines.

7.   Terrorism and the activities of terrorist organizations are perhaps the most serious threat to peace and security. The use of terrorism as an instrument of policy by a few states has exacerbated intra and inter-State conflicts. Terrorist groups have leveraged new technologies, particularly in cyberspace, for trans-national mobilization and ideological radicalization, especially of the youth. They also continue to gain logistical and financial support for their activities from disparate sources, including some states, and are increasingly able to threaten regions well beyond their base areas. Notwithstanding the rise of more malevolent terrorist groups, the Af-Pak region in India’s neighbourhood continues to be the epicentre of international terrorism. There is continuing concern over terrorist threats emanating from India’s neighbourhood and the transnational linkages through which such groups are being sustained.

8.     Peace and stability in various regions of the world are marred by the proliferation of weapons of mass destruction. In particular, the threat of nuclear terrorism continues to be a major international security concern, notwithstanding international efforts to strengthen nuclear security and to prevent non-State actors from acquiring nuclear materials.

9.  Shifts in the global balance of power as reflected in recent developments in the Asia-Pacific region, have introduced new dimensions in military and diplomatic interactions among the major powers and regional states. This has been manifested in renewed maritime disputes, changes in military posture and great power rivalry, all of which have added to complexities of the security situation in the region. In particular, the on-going contestations over island territories in the Asia Pacific have fuelled regional tensions that could seriously strain the cooperative structures that have enabled a rapid growth of the Asia Pacific region as an engine of global growth. With North Korea conducting further nuclear and missile tests, the situation on the Korean peninsula also remains fraught.

10.   India has major strategic interests as well as economic and commercial stakes in continued peace and stability in the Asia Pacific region. India’s view is that all countries must exercise restraint and resolve 4 bilateral issues diplomatically and without recourse to the use or threat of use of force. India supports freedom of navigation in international waters and the right of passage, in accordance with international law. India believes that the current regional security landscape calls for a cooperative and inclusive approach. On its part, under the ‘Act East’ policy which places renewed emphasis on engagement with the Asia Pacific, India has been an active participant in various bilateral as well as multilateral fora with a focus on security matters such as the East Asia Summit, ADMM – Plus and ASEAN Regional Forum (ARF). There is also a need to further improve regional responses to challenges such as transnational crime, terrorism, natural disasters, pandemics, cyber security as well as food and energy security.

11.   Central Asia continues to be of strategic interest, both due to its location and resources as well as in view of recent developments in Eurasia and West Asia. India has focussed on developing its political, economic and security partnerships with all Central Asian Republics. There are indications that the region is being targeted by radical terrorist groups that seek to undermine the secular regimes in these countries. India is also keen to expand its energy basket by deeper engagement in this sector with Central Asian countries that are major energy producers. There is also a mutuality of economic interest in respective markets as a destination of exports and investment, especially given efforts at consolidating the Eurasian economic space. The changes in Iran open up new avenues for establishing regional connectivity between Central Asia and India that would enable access to a wide range of natural resources in the region. Iran occupies a significant place in the economic and security calculus of the region. India has welcomed the nuclear agreement between the E3+3 and Iran.

12.   The West Asian region has progressively become embroiled in violence and instability in the wake of the political transitions ushered in by the Arab Spring which promised to bring about fundamental political and socioeconomic transformations in many countries in the region. However, this has been accompanied by the mushrooming of a number of violent non-state actors, especially terrorist groups. Major sectarian fault-lines have also been thrown open, thereby fracturing the internal cohesion of several countries. India has vital stakes in the region, in terms of diaspora, trade, energy, remittances, and security. Continuing violence and instability in West Asia and the Gulf, which is part of India’s extended neighbourhood, could impact India’s diverse interests in the region. The situation in Syria has deteriorated into rivalry and competition between great powers and major regional actors. The scenario in Iraq remains of growing concern, especially the rise of non-state actors that threaten not just regional stability but have shown the capacity to radicalize individuals into carrying out terrorist attacks in other parts of the world. The fusing together of the Syrian conflict and the crisis in Iraq could pose a major challenge, with heightened extremist and sectarian overtones. India has expressed deep concern at the violence and loss of human lives in Syria and has consistently called for an inclusive and comprehensive political solution that takes into account the legitimate aspirations of the Syrian people. India has also expressed firm support to Iraq in its fight against international terrorism 5 and in its efforts to preserve its unity and territorial integrity. Tensions between Israel and Palestine are also a matter of concern. India supports a negotiated solution resulting in a sovereign, independent, viable and united State of Palestine, living within secure and recognized borders, side by side at peace with Israel as endorsed in the Quartet Roadmap and relevant UNSC Resolutions.

13. Several parts of Africa continue to be in turmoil, as violent insurgencies and terrorist actions have progressively made their presence felt in North, East and West African countries. Of particular concern is the growing influence of terrorist organizations. While, the threat from piracy in the Western Indian Ocean has diminished, the problem has resurfaced in the Gulf of Guinea in which a number of Indian seafarers have been affected. The activities of terrorist outfits in West Africa pose a growing threat to the stability of states in the region. The linkages between local groups and terrorist organisations outside the region are a matter of concern. India has historic ties with several African nations and has sought to deepen its bilateral ties with African countries through the strategic initiative of the India-Africa Forum Summit (IAFS) mechanism that seeks to promote regional and continent-level political and economic cooperation with African countries. Internal Security Situation.

14. The challenges to internal security in India can be categorized into four broad threats viz. cross border terrorism in Jammu & Kashmir, militancy in the North East, Left Wing Extremism (LWE) in certain states and terrorism in the hinterland. The Government has been making systematic and unrelenting efforts to counter these threats and, as a result, the internal security situation in the country is firmly under control. There is steep decline in terror attacks in the hinterland and the violence perpetrated by LWE. However, developments in Jammu & Kashmir and Punjab have been a cause of concern, especially the cross-border terror attacks and trafficking of arms & narcotics.

15.   The overall security situation in J&K remains stable in spite of the focused efforts of separatists and terrorist tanzeems to disrupt the prevailing peace. This was primarily due to the protracted operations of the Security Forces in the hinterland and effectiveness of the counter infiltration grid on the Line of Control/International Border. However radicalization and fresh recruitment in South Kashmir is a cause of concern. External factors, including the changing situation in Pakistan and Afghanistan, may also impact the internal situation in Jammu & Kashmir.

16.   The security situation in the North Eastern States has been gradually improving in terms of reduction in number of violent incidents and lower civilian casualties. The number of violent incidents has come down from 1025 in 2012 to 574 in 2015 and the number of civilians killed has come down from 97 to 46 in the same period. The states of Tripura, Mizoram and Sikkim are by and large, peaceful. In Arunachal Pradesh, barring a few incidents, there is general atmosphere of peace. In Manipur and Nagaland there was increase in violence against Security Forces by the extremist groups in 2015 in the wake of unilateral abrogation of ceasefire by NSCN/K. In Meghalaya, security forces were able to contain the violent activities of the militant 6 groups. The signing of the Framework for Peace between the Government of India and the National Socialist Council for Nagalim (Issac-Muviah) [NSCN (I-M] in August 2015 was a positive step towards ending the country’s oldest insurgency. The extradition of Anup Chetia, a prominent United Liberation of Front of Asom (ULFA) leader, by Bangladesh to India in November 2015 was an encouraging development that may help in the success of peace talks between the Government of India and ULFA (pro talk) leaders. Successful counter insurgency operations against the National Democratic Front of Bodoland – Songjibit [NDFB (S)] and the Garo National Liberation Army (GNLA) by the security forces have dealt a severe blow to the fighting capabilities of these insurgent groups. Talks are continuing with NDFB (P) and (RD) factions to resolve Bodo issues.

17.    Left Wing Extremism (LWE) continues to be an area of concern to the internal security of the country. However, LWE violence has been declining over the years due to various efforts of the Government such as greater presence of security forces across the LWE affected States, loss of cadres/ leaders on account of arrests, surrender and desertions, better monitoring of development schemes and insurgency fatigue among Maoist cadres.